Now that we are a couple weeks beyond Election Day we're able do some quick
reflection on the market activity leading up to it. Other familiar factors are still at play
that impact the market like mortgage rate volatility, financial markets, seasonal trends
& inventory, but with government as the home team sport in the DC area it's a
reasonable exercise to do a quick snapshot analysis.
So how did this cycle compare historically?
For some context, here's some numbers from this October compared with the most
recent pre-pandemic election cycle of Fall 2016 for two key metrics, new pending
sales and new listings (new inventory) recorded for the DC Metro Area:
- New pending sales recently saw a 4% decrease in October from the previous
month, compared to a 4% increase in the same period in October 2016. - New listings recently saw a 5% decrease in October from the previous month,
compared to a 19% decrease in same period during October 2016.
For Deeper context:
- New pending sales in the 2017-2019 non-election cycle period saw an increase
each year in October from the previous month, with an average of +5.5%
amongst the three years. - During the same period, new listings decreased each year with an average drop
of about 9%.
In conclusion, results are a bit of a mixed bag with new contract activity slowing a bit
while new inventory didn't see the same historical drop-off. That said, numbers are
still open to some interpretation. We'll be able to reflect further as we move ahead.
Since Election Day, however, weekly numbers have looked strong particularly in new
pending sales and one additional key metric: overall buyer showings (home tours) are
up over 18% from this time last year according to a leading platform. In the DC area,
the lead up through the holiday season historically tends to be a good time for
buyers. It's a busy time for all and assistance is available if you need guidance on
staying informed. For any questions or help with your selling or buying plans the rest
of the year, feel free to reach out directly.
Metro Area Monthly Market Update
A pretty strong month for overall activity in October compared to a year ago with
increases in new pending sales (+14.7%) and new listings (+4.7%). New closed
transactions also saw a big jump (+18%) after a couple months of increased pending
sales (new contracts). Of course, a slight dip in activity from September as mentioned
above with the lead-up to Election Day. A notable trend is also the increase in
recorded showings, which is something to monitor as a possible indicator of
increased activity.
For the full report, click below.
DC Metro Area October Full Report
Monthly Regional Market Data Reports
Comprehensive reports available available upon direct request or by signing up
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